🔗 Full report: Turning Over a New Leaf – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

The Challenge: Knowing What to Do, But Failing to Act

Climate change is accelerating. Species extinction and ecosystem degradation are occurring at unprecedented rates. The world produces over two billion tonnes of waste annually, a figure expected to double by 2050. Scientists have repeatedly sounded the alarm: phase out fossil fuels, restore ecosystems, and shift to sustainable living. Yet, progress remains sluggish. The question is no longer what to do—but why aren’t we doing it?

Introducing the Theory of Deep Change

This year’s report responds to that question by introducing the Theory of Deep Change (ToDC). This new framework helps us understand why surface-level responses often fall short. It explains that real change requires addressing the root causes of global crises—our beliefs, values, and social systems.

The theory involves four core stages:

1. Observe current outcomes.
2. Identify root causes.
3. Envision a desirable future.
4. Explore transformations to achieve it.

Rather than simply preventing catastrophe, ToDC helps reimagine how we might live in a future that is abundant, resilient, and just.

Five Transformational Shifts

The report outlines five key transformations needed for deep systemic change:

1. Rethink waste – From trash to treasure
2. Realign with nature – From separation to harmony
3. Reconsider responsibility – From me to we
4. Reimagine the future – From seconds to centuries
5. Redefine value – From economic wealth to planetary health

These changes require moving away from reactive, short-term thinking to proactive, long-term systems redesign.

From Plastic Waste to Planetary Health

One practical example explored is our relationship with waste. Current systems are based on linear consumption: extract, use, discard. Even well-intended efforts like recycling struggle because they operate within a system that rewards overproduction and disposability.

To fix this, ToDC suggests changing our underlying assumption that material consumption equals happiness. Only by shifting our values to recognize resource finiteness and the value of durability can we build effective circular systems—supported by policies such as right-to-repair laws or design standards that promote reuse and longevity.

🔗 Technical report: Rethinking Waste – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

Inner and Outer Levers of Change

The report distinguishes between inner levers—changes in personal or collective values—and outer levers—changes in societal structures like laws and institutions. While inner levers deal with the “soil” (beliefs and assumptions), outer levers affect the “trunk and branches” (structures and systems).

When used together, these levers can reinforce one another. For instance, the global shift in attitudes toward smoking resulted from both public health campaigns (inner levers) and regulatory action (outer levers). This same interplay is needed to address climate and ecological breakdown.

A Global Responsibility: Moving Beyond Unilateralism

UNU-EHS also warns of the dangers of individualistic or unilateral climate actions, such as solar geoengineering. Though marketed as quick fixes, such technologies can have unintended global consequences—worsening inequalities and climate injustices. Instead, we must embrace global cooperation, based on shared responsibility and mutual care.

🔗 Technical report: Reconsidering Responsibility – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

Learning from the Past: The Montreal Protocol

The report highlights the 1987 Montreal Protocol as a rare but powerful example of successful global coordination. Through binding agreements, financial support, and shared goals, the Protocol reversed ozone depletion—a feat now guiding us toward full ozone recovery by 2066. It proves that unified global action is possible—and effective.

Hope Through Radical Imagination

While today’s risks are daunting, UNU-EHS emphasizes that human-made systems can be unmade—and remade. With bold imagination and deliberate action, we can cultivate systems rooted in planetary health and collective wellbeing. The report urges us not just to limit harm but to actively build the future we want.

🔗 Technical report: Redefining Value – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

🔗 Technical report: Reimagining the Future – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

🔗 Technical report: Realigning with Nature – Interconnected Disaster Risks 2023

Rewilding is deep change

In the technical report “Realign with Nature” (2025), rewilding is presented as a vital approach to restore ecological integrity and reconnect humans with natural processes. The report highlights rewilding as a means to support ecosystems in regaining their functionality by reintroducing keystone species, allowing natural succession, and reducing human control over landscapes.

Rather than managing nature for useful outcomes, rewilding embraces uncertainty and complexity, fostering self-sustaining systems that can adapt to change. This approach aligns with the broader transformation advocated by the UNU-EHS—to shift from dominating and exploiting nature to collaborating with it. Rewilding, in this context, is not just an ecological intervention but a cultural shift toward humility, participation, and coexistence with the living world.

Turning Over a New Leaf: A Call to Action

“Turning Over a New Leaf” doesn’t just diagnose the crisis—it offers a roadmap to deep, meaningful transformation. By rethinking what we value, reimagining our relationship with nature, and committing to both personal and collective change, we can move from crisis to opportunity.

This is not about returning to an idealized past—it’s about courageously creating a future where both people and planet can thrive. The time to act is now—and it starts with shifting our beliefs, our systems, and ultimately, our direction.

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The paper introduces three ‘levers’ for reducing pressures on land and creating a more sustainable food system. The first is to change dietary patterns to reduce food demand and encourage more plant-based diets. The second is to protect and set aside land for nature, whether through re-establishing native ecosystems on spared farmland or integrating pockets of natural habitat into farmland. The third is to shift to more sustainable farming. All three levers will be needed for food system redesign to succeed.

Our recommendations for action are based around a series of major summits and conferences on food systems, climate, biological diversity, nutrition and related areas scheduled in 2021. These offer a unique opportunity for a ‘food systems approach’ to become embedded in international policy processes.

Summary

• Biodiversity loss is accelerating around the world. The global rate of species extinction today is orders of magnitude higher than the average rate over the past 10 million years.
• The global food system is the primary driver of this trend. Over the past 50 years, the conversion of natural ecosystems for crop production or pasture has been the principal cause of habitat loss, in turn reducing biodiversity.
• Our food system has been shaped over past decades by the ‘cheaper food’ paradigm. Policies and economic structures have aimed to produce ever more food at ever lower cost. Intensified agricultural production degrades soils and ecosystems, driving down the productive capacity of land and necessitating even more intensive food production to keep pace with demand. Growing global consumption of cheaper calories and resource-intensive foods aggravates these pressures.
• Current food production depends heavily on the use of inputs such as fertilizer, pesticides, energy, land and water, and on unsustainable practices such as monocropping and heavy tilling. This has reduced the variety of landscapes and habitats, threatening or destroying the breeding, feeding and/or nesting of birds, mammals, insects and microbial organisms, and crowding out many native plant species.
• As a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, our food system is also driving climate change, which further degrades habitats and causes species to disperse to new locations. In turn, this brings new species into contact and competition with each other, and creates new opportunities for the emergence of infectious disease.
• Without reform of our food system, biodiversity loss will continue to accelerate. Further destruction of ecosystems and habitats will threaten our ability to sustain human populations. Reform will rely on the use of three principal levers:
  • Firstly, global dietary patterns need to converge around diets based more on plants, owing to the disproportionate impact of animal farming on biodiversity, land use and the environment. Such a shift would also benefit the dietary health of populations around the world, and help reduce the risk of pandemics. Global food waste must be reduced significantly. Together, these measures would reduce pressure on resources including land, through reducing demand.
  • Secondly, more land needs to be protected and set aside for nature. The protection of land from conversion or exploitation is the most effective way of preserving biodiversity, so we need to avoid converting land for agriculture. Restoring native ecosystems on spared agricultural land offers the opportunity to increase biodiversity.
  • Thirdly, we need to farm in a more nature-friendly, biodiversity-supporting way, limiting the use of inputs and replacing monoculture with polyculture farming practices.
• These three levers are in part interdependent. Most notably, the protection and setting aside of land for nature and the shift to nature-friendly farming both depend on dietary change, and will become increasingly difficult to achieve if continued growth in food demand exerts ever-growing pressure on land resources.
• The year ahead offers a potentially unique window of opportunity for food system redesign. A series of international summits and conferences will take place in 2021, during which the topic of food systems and biodiversity will be a common thread. Importantly, the UN secretary-general will convene the world’s first UN Food Systems Summit (UNFSS) in recognition of the need for a transformation of the food system to improve nutrition security, public health and environmental sustainability.
• In 2021, governments around the world are expected to unlock unprecedented levels of investment to support economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Efforts to set in motion a ‘green recovery’ will bring questions of sustainability, equity and societal resilience to the fore, creating new opportunities for joined-up policymaking that affords equal priority to public and planetary health.
• In light of these opportunities, this paper recommends action on three fronts if efforts to establish a biodiversity-supporting food system are to be advanced in 2021:
  • International decision-makers need to recognize the interdependence of supply-side and demand-side action. Dietary change and a reduction in food waste are critical to breaking the system lock-ins that have driven the intensification of agriculture and the continued conversion of native ecosystems to crop production and pasture.
  • Stakeholders leading on the design and delivery of the UNFSS must ensure that it embeds a ‘food systems approach’ across other key international processes, including UN climate negotiations. The summit should aim to bring together the interdependent policy threads of environmental sustainability, inclusive prosperity, sustainable growth, and improved public health and well-being.
  • International and national decision-makers need to strengthen the coherence between global agreements and national-level action. National dialogues are needed to translate global commitments into action on the ground. At the same time, national accounting frameworks will be key to building understanding of the value of biodiversity, and to supporting biodiversity protection. Global guidelines in policy areas such as responsible investment, dietary change and nature-based climate change mitigation solutions will be needed to guide national-level action plans that can collectively deliver transformative change to the global food system.

Find the full report here: Food System Impacts on Biodiversity Loss

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BONN, Germany – As the world wakes up to the strong links between biodiversity loss, global pandemics such as COVID-19, and climate change, the Global Landscapes Forum (GLF) community is issuing a powerful prescription for these crises, with seven recommendations to harness the power of landscapes to safeguard biodiversity.

A new report by the GLF and Youth in Landscapes Initiative (YIL), One World, One Health: recommendations for harnessing the power of landscapes, confronts such realities as the mass extinction that could see up to a million species disappear from the Earth in the coming decades. It outlines seven immediate steps including:

• Tear down silos that separate public health and environmental sectors, (something the pandemic has proven essential)
• Re-focus harmful subsidies worth billions of dollars; stimulate youth employment in conservation and restoration ($500 billion a year spent on fossil fuel subsidies alone)
• Return ownership of food systems, value-chain decision making, and financing mechanisms to local communities
• Give the narrative back to communities that have the most at stake from climate, health, and biodiversity crises 

These are just some of the recommendations from the report One World, One Health, which will be released publicly on Tuesday 12 January 2021. These solutions and potent pathways grew out of the GLF Biodiversity Digital Conference 2020 “One World, One Health” (28-29 October 2020), which reached 35 million people on social media.

The GLF community is reminding the world it can afford to invest in conserving biodiversity. In 2012, the CBD estimated that it would require between USD 150 and 440 billion annually to achieve its Aichi Targets; currently, governments spend upwards of USD 500 billion on environmentally harmful subsidies.

Youth networks and organizations were particularly prominent in developing the themes and recommendations of the GLF paper, as well as penning an open letter demanding greater transparency, inclusion, transformative education, and action for our common present and future.

“This is truly a state of planetary emergency…we are running out of time. This is the decisive decade for humanity’s future on Earth,” said Johan Rockström, director of Potsdam University’s Institute for Climate Impact Research at last year’s GLF Biodiversity Conference. 

The recommendations contribute to the work around the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, which is to be adopted by the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) this year. It will also contribute to the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021-2030) and play a significant role in promoting solutions regarding sustainable use and conservation of our planet’s biodiversity.

Source: Global Landscape Forum

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The Global Landscapes Forum (GLF) is the world’s largest knowledge-led platform on integrated land use, dedicated to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Climate Agreement. The Forum takes a holistic approach to create sustainable landscapes that are productive, prosperous, equitable and resilient and considers five cohesive themes of food and livelihood initiatives, landscape restoration, rights, finance and measuring progress. It is led by the Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR), in collaboration with its co-founders UN Environment Programme and the World Bank and Charter Members.

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Despite encouraging progress in several areas, the natural world is suffering badly and getting worse. Eight transformative changes are, therefore, urgently needed to ensure human wellbeing and save the planet, the UN warns in a major report.

The report comes as the COVID-19 pandemic challenges people to rethink their relationship with nature, and to consider the profound consequences to their own wellbeing and survival that can result from continued biodiversity loss and the degradation of ecosystems.

The Global Biodiversity Outlook 5 (GBO-5), published by the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), offers an authoritative overview of the state of nature. It is a final report card on progress against the 20 global biodiversity targets agreed in 2010 with a 2020 deadline, and offers lessons learned and best practices for getting on track.

“This flagship report underlines that ‘humanity stands at a crossroads with regard to the legacy we wish to leave to future generations,’” said CBD Executive Secretary, Elizabeth Maruma Mrema.

“Many good things are happening around the world and these should be celebrated and encouraged. Nevertheless, the rate of biodiversity loss is unprecedented in human history and pressures are intensifying. Earth’s living systems as a whole are being compromised. And the more humanity exploits nature in unsustainable ways and undermines its contributions to people, the more we undermine our own well-being, security and prosperity.”

“As nature degrades,” Ms. Mrema continued, “new opportunities emerge for the spread to humans and animals of devastating diseases like this year’s coronavirus. The window of time available is short, but the pandemic has also demonstrated that transformative changes are possible when they must be made.”

“The decisions and level of action we take now will have profound consequences — for good or ill — for all species, including ours.”

With respect to the Aichi Biodiversity Targets, set in 2010, the analysis based on the 6th set of national reports to the CBD and the latest scientific findings shows that seven of 60 “elements” — success criteria — within the 20 targets have been achieved and 38 show progress. In the case of 13 elements, no progress was made, or a move away from the target was indicated, and for two elements the level of progress is unknown. The report concludes that, overall, of the 20 targets, six of them (9, 11, 16, 17, 19 and 20) were partially achieved by the 2020 deadline.

“Now, we must accelerate and scale-up collaboration for nature-positive outcomes – conserving, restoring and using biodiversity fairly and sustainably. If we do not, biodiversity will continue to buckle under the weight of land- and sea-use change, overexploitation, climate change, pollution and invasive alien species. This will further damage human health, economies and societies – with particularly detrimental effects on indigenous peoples and local communities” said Inger Andersen Executive Director, UNEP.

“We know what needs to be done, what works and how we can achieve good results. If we build on what has already been achieved, and place biodiversity at the heart of all our policies and decisions – including in COVID-19 recovery packages – we can ensure a better future for our societies and the planet” she added.

By partially met, GBO5 refers to targets where at least one distinct element has been met. For example, the elements of Target 11 regarding the proportions of lands and seas protected was met, but the elements related to the quality of protected areas were not. Similarly, for Target 19, biodiversity knowledge has improved but it has not been widely shared or applied. For Target 20, official development assistance doubled but resources did not increase from all sources.

The national reports to the CBD offer evidence that the types of transitions needed moving forward are beginning; that virtually all countries are taking steps to protect biodiversity.

GBO5 cites several exemplary national actions and programmes, in the absence of which conditions would certainly be worse (extinctions would be higher for example).

In addition, for example, deforestation rates continue to fall, eradication of invasive alien species from islands is increasing, awareness of biodiversity appears to be increasing.

“The actions that have been taken need to be significantly scaled up, move from being project driven and become more systemic and broadened,” says Ms. Mrema. “Also, the gaps in national ambition and action need to be filled. The information in part III of GBO-5 is about doing this and provides examples of the types of actions that needed going forward.”

The report calls for a shift away from “business as usual” across a range of human activities. It outlines eight transitions that recognize the value of biodiversity, the need to restore the ecosystems on which all human activity depends, and the urgency of reducing the negative impacts of such activity:

• The land and forests transition: conserving intact ecosystems, restoring ecosystems, combatting and reversing degradation, and employing landscape level spatial planning to avoid, reduce and mitigate land-use change
• The sustainable agriculture transition: redesigning agricultural systems through agroecological and other innovative approaches to enhance productivity while minimizing negative impacts on biodiversity
• The sustainable food systems transition: enabling sustainable and healthy diets with a greater emphasis on a diversity of foods, mostly plant-based, and more moderate consumption of meat and fish, as well as dramatic cuts in the waste involved in food supply and consumption
• The sustainable fisheries and oceans transition: protecting and restoring marine and coastal ecosystems, rebuilding fisheries and managing aquaculture and other uses of the oceans to ensure sustainability, and to enhance food security and livelihoods
• The cities and infrastructure transition: deploying “green infrastructure” and making space for nature within built landscapes to improve the health and quality of life for citizens and to reduce the environmental footprint of cities and infrastructure
• The sustainable freshwater transition: an integrated approach guaranteeing the water flows required by nature and people, improving water quality, protecting critical habitats, controlling invasive species and safeguarding connectivity to allow the recovery of freshwater systems from mountains to coasts
• The sustainable climate action transition: employing nature-based solutions, alongside a rapid phase-out of fossil fuel use, to reduce the scale and impacts of climate change, while providing positive benefits for biodiversity and other sustainable development goals
• The biodiversity-inclusive One Health transition: managing ecosystems, including agricultural and urban ecosystems, as well as the use of wildlife, through an integrated approach, to promote healthy ecosystems and healthy people.

Read the full press release

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The degradation of land and marine ecosystems undermines the well-being of 3.2 billion people and costs about 10 per cent of the annual global gross product in loss of species and ecosystems services. Key ecosystems that deliver numerous services essential to food and agriculture, including
supply of freshwater, protection against hazards and provision of habitat for species such as fish and pollinators, are declining rapidly.

“We are pleased that our vision for a dedicated Decade has become reality,” said Lina Pohl, Minister of Environment and Natural Resources of El Salvador, a regional restoration leader. “We need to promote an aggressive restoration program that builds resilience, reduces vulnerability and increases the ability of systems to adapt to daily threats and extreme events.”

Restoration of 350 million hectares of degraded land between now and 2030 could generate USD 9 trillion in ecosystem services and take an additional 13-26 gigatons of greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere.

“The UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration will help countries race against the impacts of climate change and biodiversity loss,” said José Graziano da Silva, Director-General of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). “Ecosystems are being degraded at an unprecedented rate. Our global food systems and the livelihoods of many millions of people depend on all of us working together to restore healthy and sustainable ecosystems for today and the future.”

“UN Environment and FAO are honored to lead the implementation of the Decade with our partners,” said Joyce Msuya, Acting Executive Director of the UN Environment Programme. “The degradation of our ecosystems has had a devastating impact on both people and the environment. We are excited that momentum for restoring our natural environment has been gaining pace because nature is our best bet to tackle climate change and secure the future.”

The Decade, a global call to action, will draw together political support, scientific research and financial muscle to massively scale up restoration from successful pilot initiatives to areas of millions of hectares. Research shows that more than two billion hectares of the world’s deforested and degraded landscapes offer
potential for restoration.

The Decade will accelerate existing global restoration goals, for
example the Bonn Challenge, which aims to restore 350 million hectares of degraded ecosystems by 2030 – an area almost the size of India. Currently 57 countries, subnational governments and private organizations have committed to bring over 170 million hectares under restoration. This endeavor builds on regional efforts such as the Initiative 20×20 in Latin America that aims to restore 20 million hectares of degraded land by 2020, and the AFR100 African Forest Landscape Restoration Initiative that aims to bring 100 million hectares of degraded land under restoration by 2030.

Ecosystem restoration is defined as a process of reversing the degradation of ecosystems, such as landscapes, lakes and oceans to regain their ecological functionality; in other words, to improve the productivity and capacity of ecosystems to meet the needs of society. This can be done by allowing the natural regeneration of overexploited ecosystems, for example, or by planting trees and other plants.

Ecosystem restoration is fundamental to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, mainly those on climate change, poverty eradication, food security, water and biodiversity conservation. It is also a pillar of international environmental conventions, such as the Ramsar Convention on wetlands and the Rio Conventions on biodiversity, desertification and climate change.

Currently, about 20 per cent of the planet’s vegetated surface shows declining trends in productivity with fertility losses linked to erosion, depletion and pollution in all parts of the world. By 2050 degradation and climate change could reduce crop yields by 10 per cent globally and by up to 50 per cent in certain regions.

About FAO

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) believes that sustainable food systems can be the common thread that links the different challenges the world faces in building a sustainable future. FAO is the custodian UN agency for 21 of the Sustainable Development Goals’ indicators and is a contributing agency for a further four. In this capacity, FAO is supporting countries’ efforts in achieving the 2030 Agenda.

About UN Environment

The United Nations Environment Programme (UN Environment) is the leading global environmental authority that sets the global environmental agenda, promotes the coherent implementation of the environmental dimension of sustainable development within the United Nations system, and serves as an authoritative advocate for the global environment. Its mission is to provide leadership and encourage partnership in caring for the environment by inspiring, informing, and enabling nations and peoples to improve their quality of life without compromising that of future generations.

Source: UN Environment

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